ChatGPT Impact on Wages: Study Reveals Key Insights

When ChatGPT burst onto the scene in late 2022, many predicted a workforce revolution—mass automation, skyrocketing productivity, and perhaps even job losses on a scale unseen since the Industrial Revolution. Fast forward to May 2025, and the reality looks a lot less dramatic. Recent studies, including work by economists Anders Humlum and Emilie Vestergaard, find that AI chatbots like ChatGPT have not led to significant changes in wages or working hours for the vast majority of occupations[1][2][3].

But why hasn’t generative AI delivered the productivity windfall many expected? And what does this mean for businesses, workers, and the future of jobs? Let’s unpack the latest data, expert insights, and real-world impacts shaping the workplace in the age of AI.

The Promise vs. The Reality of AI Chatbots

ChatGPT and its cousins—Google’s Gemini, Anthropic’s Claude, and others—were hailed as game-changers. Analysts predicted double-digit productivity gains, and workers braced for disruption. But the latest research tells a different story.

A study based on actual tax data and large-scale surveys from late 2023 and 2024 found that, despite widespread adoption, generative AI tools have had “no significant impact on earnings or recorded hours in any occupation”[1][3][4]. Users reported average time savings of just 2.8% of work hours—about an hour more per 40-hour workweek[2]. That’s a far cry from the 15% productivity boosts seen in some controlled trials, which Humlum and Vestergaard explain by pointing out that real-world jobs are far more complex than the tasks tested in those experiments[2].

“Most tasks do not fall into that category where ChatGPT can just automate everything. And then second, we're in this middle phase where employers are still waking up to the new reality, and we're trying to figure out how to best really realize the potential in these tools. And just at this stage, it's just not been that much of a game changer,” said Anders Humlum[2].

Why Aren’t We Seeing Bigger Gains?

The reasons for this muted impact are multifaceted. First, not all tasks are easily automated by chatbots. While AI excels at drafting emails, summarizing documents, or generating code snippets, most jobs involve a mix of routine and non-routine activities—many of which require human judgment, creativity, or physical presence[2][3].

Second, organizations are still figuring out how to integrate AI into workflows. Many companies have adopted chatbots, but few have redesigned roles or processes to fully leverage their potential. As a result, productivity gains are limited to narrow, repetitive tasks rather than entire job functions[3].

Third, the benefits of AI are not always passed on to workers. Humlum and Vestergaard estimate that only 3% to 7% of productivity gains translate into higher earnings for employees[2][3]. The rest is absorbed by firms or lost in the friction of organizational change.

Real-World Applications and Examples

Despite the modest impact on wages and hours, AI chatbots are being used across industries. In finance, analysts use ChatGPT to draft reports and analyze data. In customer service, chatbots handle routine inquiries, freeing up humans for more complex issues. In education, teachers use AI to generate lesson plans and provide personalized feedback.

But these applications are often incremental. For example, a customer service agent might save a few minutes per shift, but their overall workload and pay remain largely unchanged. Similarly, a marketing professional might use AI to brainstorm campaign ideas, but still spends most of their time on strategy, client meetings, and creative execution.

The Surprising Rise in Work Hours for Some

Interestingly, not everyone is working less. Research from the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) found that, in occupations highly exposed to generative AI—such as computer systems analysts, credit counselors, and logisticians—work hours actually increased by about 3.15 hours per week after ChatGPT’s release[5].

This counterintuitive trend is driven by two factors. First, AI makes workers more productive, incentivizing them (and their employers) to work longer hours. Second, when work becomes more rewarding—thanks to productivity-linked pay—people may choose to work more rather than enjoy more leisure time[5].

“When AI complements human labour rather than replacing it, the process makes each hour of work more valuable. This effect is strongest in jobs where AI helps employees perform tasks more efficiently,” the CEPR report explains[5].

Comparing AI’s Impact Across Occupations

Let’s take a closer look at how AI chatbots are affecting different types of jobs. The table below summarizes key findings from recent studies:

This table highlights the uneven impact of AI across the workforce. For most, life goes on largely unchanged. For a select few, AI is fueling longer hours and slightly higher pay—but not necessarily more free time[5].

The Human Side: How Workers Feel About AI

As someone who’s followed AI for years, I’m struck by how quickly expectations have shifted. Early hype suggested AI would either liberate us from drudgery or threaten our livelihoods. Today, the mood is more measured.

Workers report mixed feelings. Some appreciate the time saved on routine tasks, but many feel underwhelmed by the lack of tangible benefits. “It’s nice to have, but it hasn’t changed my life,” one office worker told me. Others worry about the long-term implications—will AI eventually replace more jobs, or will it just make us work harder?

By the way, this ambivalence isn’t limited to rank-and-file employees. Managers and executives are also grappling with how to get the most out of AI without disrupting their teams or alienating their workforce.

The Road Ahead: What’s Next for AI and Work?

We’re still in the early days of generative AI. The tools are improving rapidly, and agentic capabilities—where AI can autonomously execute multi-step tasks—are on the horizon. As these features mature, the impact on work could become more pronounced[3].

But for now, the data is clear: AI chatbots are a helpful tool, not a transformative force. They’re making some jobs a bit easier, but they’re not reshaping the labor market—at least not yet.

Looking ahead, several trends are worth watching:

• Agentic AI: As chatbots become more autonomous, they could handle more complex tasks, potentially displacing some jobs or enabling new ones.
• Organizational Change: Companies that figure out how to redesign roles and workflows around AI will likely see bigger productivity gains.
• Policy and Ethics: Policymakers and ethicists are starting to ask tough questions about how to ensure AI benefits are shared fairly and how to protect workers from potential downsides.

Conclusion: A Measured Revolution

For now, the revolution is more measured than many expected. AI chatbots like ChatGPT are here to stay, but their impact on wages and working hours has been modest at best. Workers are using these tools to save a bit of time, but most are not seeing significant changes in their paychecks or workloads. In some cases, AI is even leading to longer hours—especially in jobs where productivity gains are most pronounced.

The takeaway? AI is a powerful tool, but it’s not a magic wand. Its real value will be unlocked when organizations and workers learn to use it in ways that complement, rather than replace, human skills and judgment.

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